Ali Karimli has spent nearly half a year languishing in a grisly Baku jail cell on contested treason charges.
The veteran leader ofAzerbaijan’spro-democracy opposition party, 61, has long accused the regime of politically-motivated detentions, torturing his staff and blowing up his party headquarters. But the latest arrest is different, he says.
Speaking toThe Independentfrom prison, Karimli says his arrest comes amid a spiralling crackdown on dissent - and urges Western trading partners to act with “courage” and press the regime on its rights record, lest political opposition disappear altogether.
“The repressive campaign already underway ... has now reached its peak with my arrest,” he said, adding: “It signals that a new era has begun - one in which the authorities intend to eliminate organised political opposition in Azerbaijan permanently.”
Rights groups have identified at least 340 people they say have been detained as political prisoners, including journalists and activists.
Concerns grew in December when a 22-year-old regime criticdiedby apparent suicide in prison. An investigation was never published.
Karimli warns that Baku’s trade partners are sacrificing hopes of long-term stability in the energy-rich country by “looking the other way”, and calls on the UK - as Azerbaijan’s largest foreign investor - to use its leverage.
As he prepares to face trial in June, Karimli says the regime will be watching the international reaction to gauge how to proceed with its crackdown, leaving only a short window for action.
Karimli was detained on 29 November after security agents raided his home. He was accused of conspiring to overthrow the government in a Russian-backed coup and held incommunicado for two days before being remanded on pre-trial detention.
A trial was expected to follow in the middle of February, but the date has since been pushed back until June. His family said they are still unclear on when exactly he will be tried. Meanwhile, he remains at a high-security facility in Baku.
“The regime here is extremely harsh,” Karimli toldThe Independentin responses to questions relayed through his family. “The State Security Service detention facility has the strictest conditions in the country.
“For someone who has committed no administrative or criminal offence — who has dedicated his life to peaceful democratic advocacy — the severity of the restrictions is, of course, deeply unpleasant.”
The father-of-three insisted the charges against him are bogus, the “precise inversion of my documented, published position” arguing for deeper Western engagement and resistance to Russian pressure.
He believes the case against him is motivated by a calculation that the international community is “too distracted” by other issues, such as the war in Ukraine, to intervene.
The regime under Ilham Aliyev believes “that European governments, hungry for alternative energy sources after turning away from Russian gas, will quietly set democratic values aside”, he said.
Azerbaijan’s relationship with Russia has shifted in recent years, hastened by the shooting down of an Azerbaijani passenger plane in 2024. The country emerged from its 2023 victory in Nagorno-Karabakh a more assertive regional player, while Moscow’s security influence has waned, still tied up in Ukraine.
At the same time, Europe’s push to reduce reliance on Russian energy has deepened its engagement with Azerbaijan, taking a stake in a country that relies on oil and gas exports for around half of its GDP.
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Karimli says Russia’s “current reactionary and expansionist policies make genuine partnership difficult”, and argues closer integration with “Euro-Atlantic institutions” - democracy, free elections, a free press, the rule of law and a free economy - are both achievable and necessary for the country to progress.
He believes there remains appetite for such reforms, even if the threat of persecution has made it harder for the public to express.
The chairman of the Azerbaijani Popular Front Party (APFP) has long faced sharp resistance for his views. He was slapped with a travel ban in 2005.
Nine years later, the party headquarters in Baku was engulfed in a huge explosion supportersbelievewas a deliberate provocation to deprive the party of an office. In 2020, the party alleged that Karimli’s bodyguard wastorturedfor 12 hours to testify against him.
Amnesty Internationalacknowledgesan “intensified crackdown on dissent” in which opposition figures and the media “increasingly face harassment, arbitrary detention and politically motivated prosecutions”.
It describes the charges against Karimli as “dubious” and calls for his release unless they can provide evidence of an alleged criminal offence.
Freedom House most recentlyscoredthe country 6/100 for Global Freedom, warning corruption remains rampant and the formal political opposition “has been weakened by years of persecution”.
“By arresting opposition leaders, closing independent media, and dismantling civil society, the authorities remove every institutional route through which dissatisfaction could become political action,” Karimli said. “They are not addressing the underlying conditions. They are preventing those conditions from producing consequences — for now.”
But the growing investment of Western countries in Azerbaijan presents an opportunity for change, he argues.
“Western officials must act with genuine foresight and courage in the South Caucasus. The window for consolidating democratic progress in the region requires sustained, unconditional engagement, not the cautious diplomacy of convenience.”
Speaking from London, Karimli’s daughter, Sezan, said that the family only has a “very narrow window” to act, with the trial pushed back from February by June.
“Aliyev is watching very closely what the international reactions are, and once the show trial begins, it’s very hard for me to think how he could back down at that point. The political cost would be much higher,” Ms Karimli, 28, toldThe Independent.
“At this moment in time, he has the chance to quietly drop the charges and somehow save face. After the trial begins, it’s going to be a lot more complicated and costly politically.”
British officials from the embassy in Baku raised the issue of Karimli’s detention with senior members of the Azerbaijani Government on 4 December, urging due legal process and where necessary access to medical care.
A spokesperson for the British foreign office said: “We have raised Ali Karimli’s case with senior members of the Azerbaijani Government, including pressing them to follow due legal process and ensure necessary access to medical care in accordance with their international obligations and commitments.
“We continue to monitor this case closely, alongside the wider human rights situation in Azerbaijan, and raise concerns about the protection of freedoms directly with the Azerbaijani Government.”
The government of Azerbaijan was approached for comment.
