As thewar in the Gulfcareens into its second month, dragging down theglobal economywith no off-ramp in sight, questions are deepening around what role China – a global heavyweight and diplomatic partner to Iran – is willing to play.
China'spotential role was in the spotlight this week after Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar visited Beijing Tuesday for talks with its top diplomat Wang Yi – a meeting that comes as Islamabad has stepped up to position itself as a peace broker in the conflict.
In a statement on "restoring peace" released Tuesday, both countries called for an "immediate ceasefire," peace talks "as soon as possible," and a lasting, UN-backed peace.
"China and Pakistan support the relevant parties in initiating talks," the two sides said in their five-point initiative released after what Islamabad described as "hours of engagement" between Dar and Wang.
The initiative is Beijing's most thoroughly articulated view to date on how the conflict should be resolved. It also calls for the securing of shipping lanes; an end to attacks on civilians and non-military targets; and safeguarding the sovereignty and security of both Iran and the Gulf states.
But that position, expressed in broad strokes, also raises questions about what concrete steps Beijing would take in a future peace process. How deeply it is willing to get involved in a conflict playing out in a volatile region where it's balancing relationships with partners on both sides?
Official Pakistani sources have told CNN that one of the things that Dar was likely to discuss while in China was the possibility that Beijing works as a guarantor to ensure a peace agreement.
Two Pakistani sources also confirmed that while a four-way meeting between Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan was underway in Islamabad earlier this week, Pakistan's President Asif Ali Zardari held meetings at the Chinese embassy to discuss the ongoing regional situation.
The spokesperson of the Pakistani Ministry of Foreign Affairs declined to respond to queries on Tuesday regarding discussions with China, stating that these talks are too "sensitive and nuanced" for MOFA to make any statements on assumptions. China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs did not immediately respond to a request for comment from CNN.
Iran has given mixed signals. President Masoud Pezeshkian on Tuesday said that the country was ready to stop fighting under certain conditions, "especially the necessary guarantees to prevent a recurrence of aggression," according to Iranian state media. At the same time, foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said Iran is prepared for "at least six months" of war.
Pakistan hasoffered to hold talksbetween its neighbor Iran and the US, leveraging its position as a power with stable ties to both. Dar's trip to China on Tuesday was at Wang's invitation, according to statements from both foreign ministries.
A guarantor?
Even as Beijing positions itself as a voice for peace and a responsible player in a conflict that's roiling the global economy, it's likely to tread carefully.
"China has every incentive to showcase its diplomatic mediation," said Tong Zhao, a senior fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "It wants the world to see a contrast: while the United States generates turmoil and chaos, China positions itself as a force for de-escalation, stability, and peace."
"What Beijing is actually willing to contribute materially, however, is another matter," he added.
This isn't China's first effort at casting itself as a peacemaker in international conflicts.
Beijing hosted talks following border clashes between Thailand and Cambodia last year. It has also offered multi-point proposals on ending the war in Ukraine – though to limited effect, with critics saying those efforts were more an exercise in polishing China's image than sincere attempts at conciliation.
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When it comes to the current conflict, Chinese strategists may see upsides to a preoccupied US that is damaging its global credibility with an economically disastrous war, even as Beijing is concerned about the ramifications for its export-driven economy.
Beijing is also highly unlikely to accept any kind of guarantor role that would require it to contribute military assets or assurances to back peace. Added to that, it is widely seen as having limited sway on security matters in the Middle East.
It's not clear what such an arrangement would entail. A diplomatic source privy to the four-way talks in Islamabad told CNN it was raised as the four countries involved were exploring different ways "to bridge the gaps between the different stakeholders in a creative way."
Such an arrangement would fall out of step with China's wariness towards military tie-ups. Beijing would also be acutely wary of any agreement that would require it to monitor and punish ceasefire violations – especially one that could potentially pull it into conflict with the US.
While China maintains a decades-old mutual defense treaty with North Korea, it has traditionally eschewed alliances and called for a revamp of the US-led model of international security.
"To be sure, as China's hard and soft power grow, there is increasing internal debate about whether Beijing should deploy its capabilities more proactively to expand global influence and consolidate its status as a leading power. Even so, Iran is an unlikely arena for such an investment," said Zhao.
Peace broker?
China has walked a careful diplomatic line over the more than four weeks of war in the Gulf, calling for a ceasefire and conducting a raft of meetings and talks on the issue. But it has also been clear about where it thinks the impetus to end the conflict – and its global economic ramifications – should lie.
"The one who tied the bell must be the one to untie it," China's Middle East envoy Zhai Jun said last week, in a clear reference to the US and Israel, when asked about the circumstances under which a ceasefire could be reached.
Chinese analysts also reflect an acute awareness from Beijing of the entrenched challenges in resolving a conflict where the two sides have little trust and much animosity.
"China has asked the two sides for immediate ceasefire, but I doubt any side would actually listen to such kind of advice at this stage. For the United States, it is already caught in the dilemma that it has to muddle through, and for Iran, they need a revenge that at least could save some face," said Senior Col. (ret) Zhou Bo, senior fellow at Tsinghua University's Center for International Security and Strategy in Beijing.
China may now not take a role in peace talks since Pakistan has already taken up that position, he added.
Beijing did play a key part in brokering a rapprochement between Iran and longtime rival Saudi Arabia in 2023. And Chinese leader Xi Jinping's alternative vision for international security includes Beijing as a mediator.
China's relationships with the key players in this conflict, including both Iran and the US, as well as Pakistan, could help it with access to all sides in peace talks, according Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Affairs at Renmin University in Beijing.
But China is also weighing up the implications of its diplomacy for its own priorities, in particular US President Donald Trump's expected visit to China this May and other upcoming diplomacy expected between the two leaders this year.
China could look to play a role as part of a goodwill gesture to the US, but it's also been wary of the war straining that relationship.
"We don't want to have Iran or any other phenomenon to damage this trust," said Renmin University's Wang, referring to the upcoming diplomatic exchanges.
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