Get ready. The world's most influential natural weather feature is coming in for a landing.
"The El Niño cometh," saidclimate scientist Zeke Hausfather on X recently.
An El Niño is forecast to develop later in 2026 along the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and some signs show it will be a strong one, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center said on March 12.
The developing El Niño may impact the number of hurricanes we can expect in the 2026 hurricane season, which officially begins on June 1.
It may also bring strong heat waves, droughts and flooding around the world.
In addition, El Niño often leads to some of the hottest years on record, such as the record-breaking worldwide average temperature in 2024.
If El Niño develops as expected, it "would push up our estimate for 2026 global temperatures (though it's still unlikely to surpass 2024 as the warmest year), and make 2027 very likely to be the warmest year on record." Hausfather said on X.
What's the forecast?
The current La Niña climate pattern is fading to eventually be replaced by a strong El Niño pattern, according to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center.
The likelihood of an El Niño forming in the late summer is currently estimated by the CPC at 62%. It's expected to "persist through at least the end of 2026," the prediction center said in the March 12 report, which officially declared an "El Niño watch."
"Even though model forecasts are relatively less accurate this time of year, the increasing odds of El Niño are supported by the large amount of heat in the subsurface ocean and the expected weakening of the low-level trade winds," the report said.
"If El Niño forms, the potential strength remains very uncertain, with a 1-in-3 chance that it would be 'strong' during October-December 2026," the prediction center said in the report.
What is El Niño?
El Niño is a natural climate pattern in which surface sea water temperatures in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean are warmer than average.
Its name means the Little Boy, or Christ Child in Spanish. El Niño was originally recognized by fishermen off the coast of South America in the 1600s with the appearance of unusually warm water in the Pacific Ocean around Christmas.
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The entire natural climate cycle is officially known as El Niño – Southern Oscillation, called ENSO by scientists. The cycle swings between warmer and cooler seawater in a region along the equator in the tropical Pacific. La Niña is marked by cooler-than-average ocean water in the region.
Could it be a 'Super' El Niño? Or a 'Godzilla' El Niño?
Although they're not official terms, some excited scientists and headline writers have dubbed the potentially strong El Niño a"Super"or"Godzilla"El Niño.
Experts at the Climate Prediction Center do not use these terms. As noted above, government scientists say there's a one-in-three chance of the El Niño reaching strong levels.
One other expert, though, said a strong one could be on the way: "Whew,"said climate scientist Daniel Swain recently in an X postafter reviewing the latest model data. "All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event."
Why do we care about El Niño?
The ENSO cycle is the primary factor government scientists consider when announcing their winter weather forecast because it mainly influences our weather in the colder months. El Niño doesn't have a strong summer climate impact for most of the country,NOAA said.
During an El Niño winter, the southern third of the United States typically experiences wetter-than-average conditions, while the northern third sees enhanced chances of below-normal precipitation, according to the Climate Prediction Center.
As for temperatures, "El Niño winters are typically warmer across the continental U.S., especially from the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes," Matthew Rosencrans, NOAA's lead hurricane seasonal forecaster, said in an e-mail to USA TODAY. "The warmth can extend farther down the West Coast and into the Southeast, but those signals are much less certain."
How does El Niño influence hurricanes?
El Niño can have a huge impact on the severity of the hurricane season in both the Atlantic and the Pacific.
"Typically, El Niño leads to more rising air over the tropical Pacific, which then leads to stronger upper-level wind shear and sinking air across the tropical Atlantic," said associate scientistAndy Hazelton of the University of Miamiin an email to USA TODAY. "This usually reduces the number of hurricanes in the Atlantic, especially in the Caribbean and Gulf."
However, he said we've seen El Niño years where the Atlantic was very warm, and that offset some of the El Niño effects − such as during 2023, he added.
Conversely, "El Niño years are typically associated with more activity in the eastern Pacific," said Rosencrans.
Doyle Rice is a national correspondent for USA TODAY, with a focus on weather and climate.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY:NOAA forecasters say strong El Niño may be brewing